This is the first time I've been here during the fiesta. I was impressed. I'm pretty sure every garlic on the planet has found it's way here. There are some onions too.
No ramps though.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Fiesta of Garlic
Zamora is famous for it's garlic.
This is the first time I've been here during the fiesta. I was impressed. I'm pretty sure every garlic on the planet has found it's way here. There are some onions too.
No ramps though.
This is the first time I've been here during the fiesta. I was impressed. I'm pretty sure every garlic on the planet has found it's way here. There are some onions too.
No ramps though.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Nouriel Roubini Channels Me
I'm so flattered I don't know what to do..
See this.
I know Professor Roubini never saw anything I wrote. He did this independently - and I'm still flattered to be on a level with him.
One should perhaps not underestimate the European capacity to muddle through.
See also
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/destroying-periphery-bailing-out-banks.html
See this.
I know Professor Roubini never saw anything I wrote. He did this independently - and I'm still flattered to be on a level with him.
One should perhaps not underestimate the European capacity to muddle through.
• The banks pretend their loans are sound and that they are well capitalized. But they won't lend more to Greeks.Result - like small children who have yet to be found out and will not have to come clean - everybody is happy. Where else might we expect to find a similar example?
• The EU & ECB pretend the banks are sound and well capitalized and that the Greeks can pay their debt. But it's beyond their own capacity to loan more money to Greeks.
• The IMF needs something to do and will lend money to anybody. But of course with conditions which they ask the Greeks to pretend to meet.
• The Greeks pretend to meet those conditions and receive even more loans which they have no hope of repaying.
• The ECB pretends to help the IMF - and everyone pretends to believe it's not beyond their capacity to help.
• The banks, the EU, the ECB, the IMF all pretend there can be no default if they don't themselves declare one to be in default.
• There is no need for anybody to pretend that there will ever be any "austerity" in the EU. The Spanish have already put an end to that thinking as everybody already knows from the IMF experience in Argentina.
See also
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/destroying-periphery-bailing-out-banks.html
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Muddle Through
Michael Hudson:
That is the issue. Why must there be fantastic sums, fantastic, available to bankers and generals and austerity for others? Quite obviously the reasons are political rather than economic.
The whole article is worth reading
HERE
Friday, in the hope of being able to somehow muddle through without either taking responsibility of their own or embarrassing themselves in front of their financial controllers, Merkel and Sarkozy are said to have reached a compromise in their positions about whether private investors (those same commercial banks they claim they regulate, but to whom they owe their positions) should suffer losses on the fantastic sums of Greek debt they extended when they thought they would be bailed out if things went badly or if things went very badly they would still keep their own bonuses. not that they were wrong!
I think it's June 25th. that the ECB makes a decision about whether to extend another fist full of euros to Greece to meet current obligations on the debt they owe to those banks that they can never ever retire. You can depend on the ECB to do just that - with somebody else's money. Yours! - if the IMF is involved. Then in the US they will claim again they have to cut "entitlements" still more to balance the budget. The amusing part will be to hear how they justify doing it.
Other recommended reading:
This from Michael Pettis
In the case of bailing out Wall Street – and thereby the wealthiest 1% of Americans – while saying there is no money for Social Security, Medicare or long-term public social spending and infrastructure investment, the beneficiaries are obvious. So are the losers. High finance means low wages, low employment, low industry and a shrinking economy under conditions where policy planning is centralized in hands of Wall Street and its political nominees rather than in more objective administrators.
That is the issue. Why must there be fantastic sums, fantastic, available to bankers and generals and austerity for others? Quite obviously the reasons are political rather than economic.
The whole article is worth reading
HERE
Friday, in the hope of being able to somehow muddle through without either taking responsibility of their own or embarrassing themselves in front of their financial controllers, Merkel and Sarkozy are said to have reached a compromise in their positions about whether private investors (those same commercial banks they claim they regulate, but to whom they owe their positions) should suffer losses on the fantastic sums of Greek debt they extended when they thought they would be bailed out if things went badly or if things went very badly they would still keep their own bonuses. not that they were wrong!
I think it's June 25th. that the ECB makes a decision about whether to extend another fist full of euros to Greece to meet current obligations on the debt they owe to those banks that they can never ever retire. You can depend on the ECB to do just that - with somebody else's money. Yours! - if the IMF is involved. Then in the US they will claim again they have to cut "entitlements" still more to balance the budget. The amusing part will be to hear how they justify doing it.
Other recommended reading:
This from Michael Pettis
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Los Indignados
I'm writing from a bit north of the occupied plazas.
I've said before, over and over, maybe to the point that people's eyes glaze over and over too, that people have dreamed of a union of Europeans since the time of Charlemagne. And we're no closer to that now than they may have been then.
And also, as I've said before, there are political limits to economic maneuver - as was shown in Argentina a few years ago when women took the streets carrying frying pans and threatened a revolt. I had thought it the coup d' grace for the IMF which had become already irrelevant in Asia a few years earlier. Rebellion against the money interests is showing again in the plazas here in España. Austerity isn't going to sell to the unemployed and 20% of Spain is unemployed; double that among the young. And it shouldn't. Austerity, tightening the belts of the productive classes to support the non-productive or rentier classes isn't necessary or desirable. And it isn't a solution for Greeks either.
Spain, Portugal, Italy in a different way, and I believe Ireland and Greece too though I'm less familiar with those economies, began their experience with European Union at great disadvantages to the northern industrially developed members. They were required to invest heavily to be able to compete with their northern neighbors. Required. And invest they did. Given monetary union they were able to borrow at only a few basis points over German rates. And German and Swiss banks, especially, were delighted to borrow at the low rates given to them and lend to sovereigns at the higher rates taking the few basis points as profits. It was big money. Trillions!
And it worked for a time. Or, at least appeared to. There was a time when it appeared every German would own a second home in Spain. That coupled with the mechanization of Spain's agricultural economy, which required still more investment, permitted, no, required, a large portion of Spain's rural population to move to the cities seeking work, which they found in construction industries, building homes for themselves and second homes for Germans. In Portugal it was a bit different though the result was the same. And Italy is different still but with a still similar result.
That was then. Whooocudanode it wouldn't last? Well yes, there were some of us.
The problem now is that the banks refuse to take the writedowns just as they do in the US. There is no way the Greek or Irish states can repay the money they owe and make up for the errors of the Greek and Irish banking sectors too. And if it comes to Spain, Portugal or Italy we'll find the same there. Yet, the ECB and the IMF (who would especially like to find new relevance were their benefactors - meaning especially the US - to knuckle under) can't contemplate a "default", a loss for themselves or for their investors. Germany too has held that position to now, but seems to be coming around. The latest proposal from Frau Merkel is for a "soft" restructuring. Nobody is quite sure what that means.
Another problem is that Greece and Spain have given up their sovereign ability to create money and repay their debts with cheaper currency.
And on top of that is all this pervasive dissension. Germany has had an outbreak of e-coli which has killed, I think now 32 people. And their first instinct was to blame the Spanish. Which they did further damaging the Spanish economy. (Though you should be skeptical of the estimates you hear of the extent of the damages.) This hasn't played well in Spain.
The wheels will come off. The present is unworkable. Something of European union may survive, but it can't survive in it's present form. Somebody has to leave. It should be Germany, the most different of the unified market. But, I imagine it won't be them. They have benefited most. Germany sells equipment to developing economies and German banks invest that surplus at interest creating an imbalance. But, they have no incentive to leave. Still, one can't be sure. This dissension works both ways. Germans feel they built the EU on their own and don't want to extend any more money or grant more favorable terms. I don't agree, but what is important is that there is no agreement.
My expectation is that Europe becomes the next sub-prime implosion. If I'm wrong it will only be because China blows up first.
Update: Plaza del Sol, Madrid was cleared peacefully last night. The demonstrators helped to clean the place up.
I've said before, over and over, maybe to the point that people's eyes glaze over and over too, that people have dreamed of a union of Europeans since the time of Charlemagne. And we're no closer to that now than they may have been then.
And also, as I've said before, there are political limits to economic maneuver - as was shown in Argentina a few years ago when women took the streets carrying frying pans and threatened a revolt. I had thought it the coup d' grace for the IMF which had become already irrelevant in Asia a few years earlier. Rebellion against the money interests is showing again in the plazas here in España. Austerity isn't going to sell to the unemployed and 20% of Spain is unemployed; double that among the young. And it shouldn't. Austerity, tightening the belts of the productive classes to support the non-productive or rentier classes isn't necessary or desirable. And it isn't a solution for Greeks either.
Spain, Portugal, Italy in a different way, and I believe Ireland and Greece too though I'm less familiar with those economies, began their experience with European Union at great disadvantages to the northern industrially developed members. They were required to invest heavily to be able to compete with their northern neighbors. Required. And invest they did. Given monetary union they were able to borrow at only a few basis points over German rates. And German and Swiss banks, especially, were delighted to borrow at the low rates given to them and lend to sovereigns at the higher rates taking the few basis points as profits. It was big money. Trillions!
And it worked for a time. Or, at least appeared to. There was a time when it appeared every German would own a second home in Spain. That coupled with the mechanization of Spain's agricultural economy, which required still more investment, permitted, no, required, a large portion of Spain's rural population to move to the cities seeking work, which they found in construction industries, building homes for themselves and second homes for Germans. In Portugal it was a bit different though the result was the same. And Italy is different still but with a still similar result.
That was then. Whooocudanode it wouldn't last? Well yes, there were some of us.
The problem now is that the banks refuse to take the writedowns just as they do in the US. There is no way the Greek or Irish states can repay the money they owe and make up for the errors of the Greek and Irish banking sectors too. And if it comes to Spain, Portugal or Italy we'll find the same there. Yet, the ECB and the IMF (who would especially like to find new relevance were their benefactors - meaning especially the US - to knuckle under) can't contemplate a "default", a loss for themselves or for their investors. Germany too has held that position to now, but seems to be coming around. The latest proposal from Frau Merkel is for a "soft" restructuring. Nobody is quite sure what that means.
Another problem is that Greece and Spain have given up their sovereign ability to create money and repay their debts with cheaper currency.
And on top of that is all this pervasive dissension. Germany has had an outbreak of e-coli which has killed, I think now 32 people. And their first instinct was to blame the Spanish. Which they did further damaging the Spanish economy. (Though you should be skeptical of the estimates you hear of the extent of the damages.) This hasn't played well in Spain.
The wheels will come off. The present is unworkable. Something of European union may survive, but it can't survive in it's present form. Somebody has to leave. It should be Germany, the most different of the unified market. But, I imagine it won't be them. They have benefited most. Germany sells equipment to developing economies and German banks invest that surplus at interest creating an imbalance. But, they have no incentive to leave. Still, one can't be sure. This dissension works both ways. Germans feel they built the EU on their own and don't want to extend any more money or grant more favorable terms. I don't agree, but what is important is that there is no agreement.
My expectation is that Europe becomes the next sub-prime implosion. If I'm wrong it will only be because China blows up first.
Update: Plaza del Sol, Madrid was cleared peacefully last night. The demonstrators helped to clean the place up.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
How Things Change
I always understood that the Cheat river was named for it's ability to cheat one of his life. Certainly that's what I was always told.
It's clear mountain water and fast currents make deep pools appear shallow and if entered the current can sweep a person away. And there are rapids that are so obviously dangerous as to make that apparent to any fool.
As a child of maybe six, I remember men talking - men who knew their way and who a child knew to respect - about who had died in the Cheat and who had canoed down it successfully. Going down that river in a boat without great preparation was thought to be a fool's errand. Those overheard conversations made an impression on me. So, one of the greatest surprises in my life has been rafting technology that makes it possible to take bus loads of people from eastern cities, fools who have never seen a mountain stream in their lives, down that river in rafts - and they don't all die. It would seem anybody can do it. That's real change.
This camino is changing too and in a way that is frighteningly similar.
Walking, we suffer each day, suffer, in our good boots and high tech equipment (viva Gortex). I can't imagine how hard this might have been for the uncounted multitudes who have done this before without our technical edge.
It isn't mandatory. We choose to do it. Yet, we choose to do it for the same reasons as they who preceded us and both the reasons and benefits are very personal - very individual. If anything is certain, walking the Camino de Santiago is a personal thing. Each of us learns something different.
It is also very spiritual. Remember that I was asked why I was doing this and one of the boxes to check was "spiritual"? I checked that box without really thinking it through. Before going on answer this question, "What does spiritual mean to you"? It's not a test question. You would not be expected to answer the same as I or to my satisfaction, but answer it to yours. Do it now.
And now that you have that answer take it a step further. In what ways might you benefit from spiritual development?
Among the many hundreds of people who start each day and the many we've met, most of whom we can hardly talk to, nearly all are here for their own reasons. Trying, each in his own way, to answer those questions.
However, the nature of the camino may be changing. It seems to have "caught on". We met a group of 15 students and their professor who was introduced to me as Ricardo and who were here as part of a medieval history class from Fordham University.
To think that 15 people would go down this route as a troupe all at the same time and all instructed in the same history by the same professor, focused on that mildly amusing little which is already known, and presumably tested at the end to insure that formative minds conform to the expected; knowledge passed on but not new found... Anathema!
God makes everything possible. Possible. Not easy. We have to do our parts. I've got a way to go, but I'm trying.
Discuss.
[*] Administrative note; plans have changed. We've been forced off the camino and hope to pick it up again in a couple of weeks.
It's clear mountain water and fast currents make deep pools appear shallow and if entered the current can sweep a person away. And there are rapids that are so obviously dangerous as to make that apparent to any fool.
As a child of maybe six, I remember men talking - men who knew their way and who a child knew to respect - about who had died in the Cheat and who had canoed down it successfully. Going down that river in a boat without great preparation was thought to be a fool's errand. Those overheard conversations made an impression on me. So, one of the greatest surprises in my life has been rafting technology that makes it possible to take bus loads of people from eastern cities, fools who have never seen a mountain stream in their lives, down that river in rafts - and they don't all die. It would seem anybody can do it. That's real change.
This camino is changing too and in a way that is frighteningly similar.
Walking, we suffer each day, suffer, in our good boots and high tech equipment (viva Gortex). I can't imagine how hard this might have been for the uncounted multitudes who have done this before without our technical edge.
It isn't mandatory. We choose to do it. Yet, we choose to do it for the same reasons as they who preceded us and both the reasons and benefits are very personal - very individual. If anything is certain, walking the Camino de Santiago is a personal thing. Each of us learns something different.
It is also very spiritual. Remember that I was asked why I was doing this and one of the boxes to check was "spiritual"? I checked that box without really thinking it through. Before going on answer this question, "What does spiritual mean to you"? It's not a test question. You would not be expected to answer the same as I or to my satisfaction, but answer it to yours. Do it now.
And now that you have that answer take it a step further. In what ways might you benefit from spiritual development?
Among the many hundreds of people who start each day and the many we've met, most of whom we can hardly talk to, nearly all are here for their own reasons. Trying, each in his own way, to answer those questions.
However, the nature of the camino may be changing. It seems to have "caught on". We met a group of 15 students and their professor who was introduced to me as Ricardo and who were here as part of a medieval history class from Fordham University.
To think that 15 people would go down this route as a troupe all at the same time and all instructed in the same history by the same professor, focused on that mildly amusing little which is already known, and presumably tested at the end to insure that formative minds conform to the expected; knowledge passed on but not new found... Anathema!
God makes everything possible. Possible. Not easy. We have to do our parts. I've got a way to go, but I'm trying.
Discuss.
[*] Administrative note; plans have changed. We've been forced off the camino and hope to pick it up again in a couple of weeks.
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